3. Direct Famine Losses in Ukraine by Region in 1933, per 1000
Overview
This map shows excess deaths per 1,000 of the population in each of Ukraine's seven oblasts and the Autonomous Moldavian Socialist Soviet Republic (Moldavia) in 1933.
The total number of 1932-1934 famine losses in Soviet Ukraine is estimated at 4.5 million, with 3.9 million direct losses (excess deaths) and 0.6 million indirect losses (lost births). The 1933 midyear population of Ukraine is estimated at 29.6 million. The 3.9 million direct losses are approximately equivalent to 13 percent of the total population in 1933. The 3.9 million is composed of 0.3 million in urban areas and 3.6 million in rural areas; these numbers are approximately equivalent to 4 percent of the urban and 16 percent of the rural population in 1933. It is important to note that the Holodomor is commonly understood as occurring in the period 1932-1933. However, the analysis here shows that significant famine-related losses also occurred in 1934. This is the first time that regional estimates of direct losses have been made for Ukraine.
Sources
This map visualizes data based on estimates of deaths during the Holodomor period derived under the "Estimation of Regional Losses of the 1932-1934 Famine in Ukraine" project conducted by Oleh Wolowyna (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) and Omelian Rudnytskyi, Nataliia Levchuk, Pavlo Shevchuk, and Alla Kovbasiuk (Institute of Demography and Social Studies in Kyiv).
The estimation here of Holodomor losses is based on separate yearly urban and rural population reconstructions by age and sex, using data from three Soviet censuses (1926, 1937, and 1939), as well as annual vital statistics and migration data for the 1927-1939 period. 1926 and 1937 census data were adjusted for undercounts and other problems, while 1939 census data were adjusted to eliminate falsifications implemented to cover up large population losses understood to be due to the famine and other repressive policies. Yearly registered births and deaths were adjusted for undercounts, especially during famine years when the undercount reached extreme levels. Based on these data and detailed data on migration, taking into account urban-rural reclassification, yearly population figures were reconstructed according to age and sex for Soviet Ukraine's eight regions, as well as for urban-rural areas.
Famine losses are operationally defined as the difference between actual estimated deaths (or births) during 1932-1934, and the number of hypothetical deaths (or births) had there been no famine. The difference in deaths is called direct losses or excess deaths; the difference in births is called indirect losses or lost births.